10 Predictions for Later This Year
Posted: April 17, 2008
There is always a risk of embarrassment and loss of
credibility when making public predictions (unless, of course,
you happen to be one of the well-connected Wall street firms.
Their friends in the media will never question their
credibility). In November of 2007, when the US Dollar price of
gold was about $720, Goldman Sachs told investors to sell gold,
and predicted gold would decline 15 to 20% in 2008. Here is a
link to a news story at the time:
Goldman Sachs predicts gold
to decline.
Here we are in April of 2008 and gold has already risen to
over $1,000. After briefly falling back to $900, it is again
nearing $1,000 an ounce. A 20% decline from $720 would have
brought gold down to about $580 per ounce. Instead gold is near
$1,000. What kind of amateur prediction was that? Why does
Goldman Sachs have any credibility after a prediction
like that?
This author will try to be much more accurate than Goldman
Sachs with his predictions. This page is recorded in the blog,
date-stamped and cached by Google, so that perfect hindsight is
not the method used to predict the "future". These predictions
were genuinely made on the date above.
Since gold has already been mentioned, we'll start there:
1. The price of gold will reach $1,300.00 US Dollars in
2008.
2. Gold's sibling, Silver, will reach $26.00 US in 2008.
3. Black gold, aka crude oil, will top $135 per barrel in
2008.
4. The average price of 1 gallon of gasoline will exceed
$4.00 in 2008.
5. The banking crisis will continue to worsen, and a
huge, headline-grabbing bankruptcy will occur as a result
(not Bear Stearns which already happened).
6. The housing crisis will continue to worsen, and house
prices will continue to fall throughout the entire year.
7. Food prices will continue to rise more rapidly than
the stated inflation rate.
8. The anger rate in America will continue to rise over
the worsening economic conditions.
9. Those in power will continue to bail out their own
while providing nothing but a pittance of help for the average
American.
10. The US Dollar will continue to fall in value relative
to other currencies, with the $USD index falling below 67.
There you have it, my forecast for the remainder of the
year. We'll see if I can do any better than Goldman Sachs did a
few months ago.
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